VIX and Cash in the Mattress

The Chicago Board Options Exchange has a market, called the VIX, in which you gamble on the volatility of the stock market. The historical chart that they have only goes back to the start of 2005, but the levels in 2008 have been higher than the levels in the previous years, and in the last week or so they have been far higher than previously. The high and low for today, one of the more interesting recent days on the stock market, which is saying a lot, were 58.24 and 45.12. The 52-week low was 15.82. I guess if you think that the stock market will calm down, you can short this market.

There will be or has been a buying opportunity in the stock market. I just wish I could tell when and where it will be.

A couple other notes about the panic. One of my colleagues runs a bed-and breakfast inn, and he says that business in the bed-and-breakfast industry is very good. People are switching from longer trips for vacations to shorter trips, and they use the bed-and-breakfast inns more frequently.

Another colleague says that a banker relative told him that some old people are pulling money out of the bank and converting to cash. That is behavior from the Great Depression. It is also stupid. If the financial system collapses so badly that bank deposits no longer have value, it is unlikely that Federal Reserve notes (that is what paper currency is to an economist) will either. Maybe these people should try mackerels instead.

Finally, there was a recent AP story on retirement that had good content in it, but also this:

Denise Edwards, 62, now expects to work for at least another decade selling condominiums because of the damage to her and her husband John's retirement savings.

Anyone who has planned properly for retirement should not be in this situation. The stock market has been a good place to invest for the long run, but it is risky for the short run (certainly anything under five years, and possibly under ten years). As one gets close to retirement, a person should make sure that they have enough to live on for several years in low-risk assets. In the case of the lady in this example, she still owed over $400,000 on a house. She should not have been planning to retire with that much debt.