Friday, October 16, 2009

Intrade political market

It is very early to be betting on what will happen in 2012, but some people want to do that. The Intrade market is now open for bets on the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. It is hard to get an exact price because there is a gap between bid and ask, but Romney seems to be leading the field with a last sale of 27. Palin is by far the most active contract, with a last price of 21.7. The high volume suggests that there are a lot of people who think she has a very good chance and a lot of people that think she has very little chance. Pawlenty is the only other with a recent price above 20 at 24.9.

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